Poll reveals Trump’s GOP base is weakening.


April 20, 2021
CONTACT: Sarah Tinsley, Director
John Bolton SuperPAC
[email protected]

Data shows that Trump endorsements are significantly less positive than seen by conventional wisdom.

Washington D.C. – A new nationwide survey by John Bolton Super PAC of midterm election voters revealed that support for President Trump is weakening inside the GOP. Specifically, 56% of Republican primary voters would support a candidate other than Donald Trump. Further, midterm voters revealed that a Trump endorsement in a race had very little net positive effect, and overwhelmingly signaled that a candidate’s position on key issues mattered more than a candidate’s loyalty to Donald Trump.

Statement of Ambassador John Bolton:

This is a critical time for the future of the Republican Party: what it stands for and who leads it. I am, therefore, delighted to announce the results of our recent nationwide public-opinion poll, the first in what we hope we will be a series of surveys at the national and state levels. As described in more detail below, the poll was aimed at better understanding attitudes about a variety of factors affecting the Republican Party and its future: views on issues and policies; opinions about former President Donald Trump; and voting preferences looking forward. To that end, we surveyed both a 1000-person sample of all voters and an oversample of Republicans (600 in number).

We were motivated in part because of the palpable discrepancy in our public discourse between what commentators, politicians and others assert about the present and future status of the Republican Party, and the evidence they possess to support their contentions. Clearly, we face a “rhetoric gap,” a significant disjunction between opinions and facts. One of our principal objectives here is to contribute to closing that rhetoric gap.

It is understandable in light of recent election-year experience that many Americans have lost all or much of their confidence in the integrity, accuracy and fairness of public-opinion polling. We make no special methodological claims for this poll, other than to say we rigorously employed highly regarded professional practices. In addition, we are making our results public for all to see and analyze.

One poll alone is obviously only a start, which is why we hope to continue and elaborate on this poll on a regular basis going forward, both at the national level and in selected states, and also expect to make these results public. We welcome competition. Those dissatisfied with the results we present here are free to conduct their own polls. The more data the better. As the words from the Bible carved on the walls in the CIA lobby say: “And ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free.”

Key findings from the poll include:

– As the number of Republicans who describe themselves as ‘very favorable’ to Donald Trump has declined by 19 points since last October, with voters citing Trump’s personality as the reason for the decline.

– 50% of Republican primary voters indicated Trump opposing a candidate makes no difference to them while 26% said they would be more likely to vote against a candidate Trump opposes. 24% said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate Trump opposes – a margin of just 2 points.

– By a margin of 89% to 8% Republican primary voters said a candidate’s stand on issues matters more than a candidate’s loyalty to Donald Trump.

– 64% of the Republican primary voters who said they liked Trump’s policies but not his personality would vote for a candidate other than Trump in the 2024 presidential primary. Even among voters who ‘Like Both Trump’s Policy and Personality,’ almost one-third do not vote for Trump.

These findings are based on a nationally representative survey conducted by political veteran Carter Wrenn, president, PEM Management Corporation, Raleigh, North Carolina, on behalf of John Bolton Super PAC, of 1,000 of likely midterm general election voters, with an oversample of Republican voters. The survey of general election voters has a margin of error of +/- 3.1% at a 95% confidence interval. The survey of 600 Likely Republican general election voters has a margin of error of +/- 4.0% at a 95% confidence interval.

The full topline analysis and crosstabs are available here: www.boltonsuperpac.com

Through his PAC, SuperPAC and Foundation, Ambassador John Bolton defends America by raising the importance of national security in public discourse and supporting candidates who believe in strong national security policies. Ambassador Bolton has worked hard to restore conservative leadership, which must reverse the recent policies of drift, decline and defeat. America must rise to the occasion and acknowledge the indispensable role we play in the world. Through 2020, Ambassador Bolton’s endorsed over 200 candidates and raised nearly $20 million for his organizations.

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Ambassador John Bolton, a diplomat and a lawyer, has spent many years in public service. He served as the U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations in 2005-2006. He was Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security from 2001 to 2005. In the Reagan Administration, he was an Assistant Attorney General.