New poll shows Trump’s base in New Hampshire drops 35% since October 2020.


June 4, 2021
CONTACT: Sarah Tinsley, Director
John Bolton SuperPAC
[email protected]

Washington D.C. – A new survey of New Hampshire voters by John Bolton Super PAC and the New Hampshire Institute of Politics revealed former President Donald Trump’s base has dropped 35% since the election with 2024 Republican primary voters. Trump’s decline is primarily due to his personality or character, as 61% of Republican voters say they disapprove of his personality. These results confirm trends among Republican primary voters first revealed in polling results released by John Bolton Super PAC in April.

Statement by Ambassador John Bolton:

“The second survey commissioned by the John Bolton Super PAC, this time of New Hampshire voters, undertaken by St. Anselm College’s Institute of Politics, shows a continuation of trends identified in our first poll, a national survey announced in April – an ongoing weakening of support for Trump within the Republican Party. This is true not only in the national poll, but in New Hampshire, a key state for the 2022 mid-term elections, with both Senatorial and Gubernatorial elections scheduled. And, New Hampshire, of course, remains the first-in-the-nation Republican primary in 2024 for the Party’s presidential nomination.

As described more fully in the attached narrative and presentation of results to the survey questions as presented to us by St. Amselm College’s Institute of Politics, we believe that the “conventional wisdom” that former President Trump still controls the Republican Party is becoming increasingly less and less tenable among his strongest supporters, regular Republicans as well as Independents. The rhetorical gap between the increasing disenchantment of actual Republican voters on the one hand and the vested interest of Trump and his supporters on the other is becoming broader.

We welcome additional polling on the subjects we have been raising by all responsible pollsters. As we demonstrated in our first national poll announced in April, we are committed to openness and transparency and have released all the data for everyone to view. With the very concept of public-opinion polling on political questions under heavy criticism in the United States, we believe nothing less is satisfactory. So for all the others who may engage in polling similar to ours, we would also welcome your commitment to full transparency as well.”

Key findings from the poll include:

– Trump has suffered a significant erosion of “strongly favorable” voters. 47% of Republican voters now have a strongly favorable opinion of Trump, compared to 71% just prior to the election. Trump has a narrow lead in the GOP primary — 52% vote Trump, 48% not Trump.

– 61% of New Hampshire Republican voters disapprove of Donald Trump’s personality. Voters in New Hampshire also say, overwhelmingly, that a candidate’s stands on issues is more important to them than a candidate’s loyalty to Trump – by a margin of 91% to 8%.

– Voters disagree with Trump’s claim that he won the 2020 election by a wide margins — 58% to 28%.

– 46% of New Hampshire Republican voters said Trump’s opposition to a Republican candidate in a primary made no difference to them. Trump’s endorsement helps a candidate in a primary but also makes it harder for the candidate to win the general election. 56% of the Undeclared voters are Strongly Unfavorable to Trump and almost all vote for Biden.

These findings are based on a survey of New Hampshire voters conducted on behalf of John Bolton Super PAC by the New Hampshire Institute of Politics, of 1,267 of likely midterm general election voters, with an oversample of Republican voters. Political veteran Carter Wrenn helped analyze the results. The survey of general election voters has a margin of error of +/- 2.8% at a 95% confidence interval.

Download the Summary
Download the Crosstabs


Ambassador John Bolton, a diplomat and a lawyer, has spent many years in public service. He served as the U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations in 2005-2006. He was Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security from 2001 to 2005. In the Reagan Administration, he was an Assistant Attorney General.