New National Poll:Trump’s GOP Support Is Fragmenting


July 19, 2021
CONTACT: Sarah Tinsley, Director
John Bolton SuperPAC
[email protected]

Post-election missteps are leading Trump’s core supporters to abandon him

Washington D.C. – A new nationwide survey by John Bolton Super PAC of voters reveals that a majority of Republican primary voters now agree “that a new Republican candidate – a fresh face – would be a stronger candidate to defeat Joe Biden in 2024.” That is a major shift since our first national poll taken in April where 50% of primary voters said Trump would be the strongest candidate to defeat Biden while 36% said another candidate would be stronger. That’s a shift of 17 points away from Trump and 16 points to a “fresh face” – a 33-point swing.

Specifically, Republican primary voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the January 6 riot, sided with Pence over certifying electoral college voters, and are concerned over the recent Trump Organization indictments.

Ambassador John Bolton:

“The significant amount of data in this poll should be of considerable interest to Republican candidates at all levels: presidential, congressional, and state/local.

The data show the fissures in Trump’s base are expanding, and show that GOP voters still prize good policy above anyone’s personality.”

Other key findings from the poll include:

– A third of Trump’s most ardent supporters – Republican primary voters who are Very Favorable to Trump – now say a fresh face would be a stronger candidate against Biden than Trump. Of Republican primary voters who are less ardent Trump supporters – voters who are Somewhat Favorable to Trump – 69% said a fresh face will be a stronger candidate.

– By a share of 2:1, Republicans sided with Mike Pence recognizing that the Vice President lacks the authority to throw out electoral college votes. 62% of all voters agree with Pence – only 14% agree with Trump. Republican primary voters also agree with Pence (43%) while only 23% agree with Trump.

– 46% of Republican primary voters believe Trump should have taken stronger steps to stop the rioters when they entered the Capitol and an overwhelming 62% of general election voters indicating Trump is to blame for the attack.

– Recent Trump organization indictments are big trouble for Trump with 45% of all voters saying the indictments for tax evasion and other charges make them less favorable to Trump, along with 22% of Republican primary voters.

– Despite Trump’s claims “the election was stolen, 64% of all voters now say Biden won the election and “is truly President.” Biden leads Trump in the 2024 Presidential ballot and Democrats lead the 2022 generic congressional ballot.

These findings are based on a nationally representative survey conducted by political veteran Carter Wrenn on behalf of John Bolton Super PAC, of 1,000 of likely midterm general election voters, with an oversample of Republican voters. The survey of general election voters has a margin of error of +/- 3.1% at a 95% confidence interval.

Through his PAC, SuperPAC and Foundation, Ambassador John Bolton defends America by raising the importance of national security in public discourse and supporting candidates who believe in strong national security policies. Ambassador Bolton has worked hard to restore conservative leadership, which must reverse the recent policies of drift, decline and defeat. America must rise to the occasion and acknowledge the indispensable role we play in the world. Through 2020, Ambassador Bolton’s endorsed over 200 candidates and raised nearly $20 million for his organizations.

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Ambassador John Bolton, a diplomat and a lawyer, has spent many years in public service. He served as the U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations in 2005-2006. He was Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security from 2001 to 2005. In the Reagan Administration, he was an Assistant Attorney General.