New Poll Shows Trump Unraveling

January 19, 2022
CONTACT: Sarah Tinsley, Director
John Bolton SuperPAC
[email protected]

Voters identifying as “Trump Republicans” drop 14 points, Trump’s support tanking.

Washington D.C. – A new national survey conducted by John Bolton Super PAC of likely voters revealed a 14-point drop in Republican Primary voters identifying themselves as “Trump Republicans.” Voters calling themselves “Trump Republicans” fell to 14.6% from 29.4% in September. Trump’s “very favorable” numbers also dropped 11 points with GOP primary voters continuing their decline, down from 55% in September to 44% now.

The poll also revealed a substantial decline in the power of Trump’s endorsement: Republican primary voters “definitely voting” for a Trump-endorsed candidate are down to just 12.6%, compared with 28.8% in September, a 16-point drop.

Statement by Ambassador John Bolton:

“The trend lines across our polls are definitive – support for Donald Trump is tanking within the Republican party. Trump’s endorsements are becoming irrelevant at best. For over a year, Trump has been telling anyone who’d listen ‘the election was stolen’ – now, when Trump says that voters shake their heads. 79% of all voters say Biden is ‘legally President,’ and 67% of Republican primary voters say Biden is legally President. Voters also think their vote will be counted fairly, and they see Trump’s personality as a major weakness.

“One final example: Last January, President Trump told Vice President Pence to throw out Electoral College votes. Pence said he did not have authority under the Constitution to do so. A majority (53%) of Republican Primary voters now agree with Pence not Trump. In fact, only 20% agree with Trump. Our party is not dominated by Trump.”

Key findings from the poll include:

-Joe Biden has rebounded and now narrowly leads Donald Trump in a general election match up (44%-43%) after trailing in the September poll. Both Independent and Undecided voters now dislike Trump more than Biden. With Independent voters Biden is Favorable 43%, Unfavorable 50% a net negative of -7 points. With Independents Trump is Favorable 36, Unfavorable 56, a net negative of -20 points. With undecided voters Biden’s net negative is -28 points, and Trump’s net negative is -42 points.

-While we saw minor improvements for Trump in ballot matchups against potential GOP primary opponents (from 26% in September to 36% now), he remains 10 points lower than he was in April and July. In all, 64% of Republican primary voters do not support Trump. Ron DeSantis leads among the other possible candidates (19.5%). Liz Cheney, polled for the first time, was at 6%. 22% were undecided.

-Additionally, a majority of primary voters (56%) believe that a “fresh face” is needed to defeat Biden in 2024.

-In a significant reversal, Republican primary voters now feel confident their vote will be counted fairly in the next election (52%-38%) compared with their attitude in September (45%-49%), a net change from -4 to +14.

-By 2 to 1 Republican primary voters believe that Donald Trump should have immediately taken action to stop the rioters on January 6th – only 25% agree with Trump not acting immediately.

-As Biden’s foreign policy continues to stumble, a majority of Republican voters (66%) now fear that Vladimir Putin sees America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan as a sign of weakness, leading Putin to believe Russia can invade Ukraine. Among all voters, 53% see the withdrawal as a sign of weakness.

These findings are based on a national survey conducted on behalf of John Bolton Super PAC of 1,000 likely general election voters. Political veteran Carter Wrenn helped analyze the results. The survey of general election voters has a margin of error of +/- 3.1% at a 95% confidence interval. This poll is the fourth national poll conducted by John Bolton Super PAC over the last ten months. All data collected for this poll and the previous ones can be found on the website. The full topline analysis and crosstabs are available at:

Through his PAC, SuperPAC and Foundation, Ambassador John Bolton defends America by raising the importance of national security in public discourse and supporting candidates who believe in strong national security policies. Ambassador Bolton has worked hard to restore conservative leadership, which must reverse the recent policies of drift, decline and defeat. America must rise to the occasion and acknowledge the indispensable role we play in the world. Through 2020, Ambassador Bolton’s endorsed over 200 candidates and raised nearly $20 million for his organizations.

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Ambassador John Bolton, a diplomat and a lawyer, has spent many years in public service. He served as the U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations in 2005-2006. He was Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security from 2001 to 2005. In the Reagan Administration, he was an Assistant Attorney General.