New Poll Finds Trump Hurts Republican Chances in Key Senate Races

July 28, 2022
CONTACT: Sarah Tinsley, Director
John Bolton SuperPAC
[email protected]

Independents’ Opposition to Trump Could Give Democrats Outright Senate Control.

Washington D.C. – A new national survey conducted by John Bolton Super PAC of likely voters in four key Senate battleground states (Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania), results indicate that Donald Trump is a significant drag on the general-election prospects of Republican candidates. Independent and undecided voters, whose votes will be critical, perhaps dispositive in November, nationally and in the four swing states, have decidedly unfavorable views of Trump. In all but Georgia, Republican candidates are trailing.

With Independent voters, Donald Trump is Favorable 38%, Unfavorable 48%, a net negative of minus ten points. Only 12.5% of Republican primary voters identified as ‘Trump Republicans’ and 73% as moderate or conservative.

Ron DeSantis continues to gain on Trump among prospective 2024 GOP primary voters. Trump has just a 2 point lead (33-31). In all, 67% of 2024 GOP primary voters picked a candidate other than Donald Trump.

Georgia: Republican Herschel Walker leads Democrat Raphael Warnock by 4 points, 46% to 42%. With Undecided voters in the Georgia Senate race Trump is Favorable 31%, Unfavorable 43%, a negative of minus 11 points.

Republican Mehmet Oz trails by 6 points. With Undecided voters Donald Trump is Favorable 34%, Unfavorable 48%. An obstacle.

Ohio: Republican J.D. Vance trails Democrat Tim Ryan by six points, 44% to 38%. With Undecided voters in the Ohio Senate race Trump is Favorable 24%, Unfavorable 52%. Another obstacle.

North Carolina: Republican Ted Budd trails Democrat Cheri Beasley by 3 points, 43% to 40%. With Undecided voters in the North Carolina Senate race Trump is Favorable 33%, Unfavorable 33%.

Characterizing the survey’s results, Ambassador John Bolton said:

“These results do not mean Republican candidates should not campaign as true conservatives, only that they stress their loyalty to principles. We can still win these races, but the candidates need to separate themselves from Trump. Whatever Trump’s role in the nominating process, his role in the coming general elections can be fatal to GOP efforts to gain outright control of the Senate.”

“Trump’s fixation on himself and the 2020 election are poisonous to independent and undecided voters. Republican candidates who hope to win in November are risking political suicide if they stress their closeness to Trump, or allow their opponents to portray them as mini-Trumps.”

Other Key findings from the poll include:

-The poll also found that 60.4% believe that a new Republican candidate, “a fresh face,” would be more likely to defeat Biden in the 2024 presidential election, while 22.9% disagree.

-On the critical question of whether Vice President Mike Pence acted correctly or incorrectly on January 6, 2021, regarding the counting of Electoral College votes, 66.3% sided with Pence, while only 14.7% sided with Trump. Of those surveyed, 81% believe that Biden is legally President of the United States, while 13% disagree.

-Americans are equally divided over whether Trump should be prosecuted for the January 6 Capitol riot (45.9% yes, 45.5% no), while 49.5% believe that Trump incited the crowd to storm the Capitol, and 39.8% disagree.

-Among Republicans asked how they describe themselves, 45.1% said they were “conservatives”; 27.7% said they were “moderates”; and only 12.5% said they were “Trump Republicans.” The rest were undecided or did not answer.

Asked who they would support for President in a primary held today, 33.3% said Trump, 30.7% said DeSantis, and all the rest were in single digits.

These findings are based on a survey conducted on behalf of John Bolton Super PAC of likely general election voters in Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina and Georgia was taken between July 22-24, 2022. We polled 1200 voters, 300 voters in each state. Political veteran Carter Wrenn helped analyze the results. The survey of general election voters has a margin of error of +/- 2.8% at a 95% confidence interval.

Through his PAC, SuperPAC and Foundation, Ambassador John Bolton defends America by raising the importance of national security in public discourse and supporting candidates who believe in strong national security policies. Ambassador Bolton has worked hard to restore conservative leadership, which must reverse the recent policies of drift, decline and defeat. America must rise to the occasion and acknowledge the indispensable role we play in the world. Through 2020, Ambassador Bolton’s endorsed over 200 candidates and raised nearly $20 million for his organizations.

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Ambassador John Bolton, a diplomat and a lawyer, has spent many years in public service. He served as the U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations in 2005-2006. He was Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security from 2001 to 2005. In the Reagan Administration, he was an Assistant Attorney General.