Maryland US Senate Race

Live/Text Benchmark Topline Results

Sample Size n=644

Method: Live/Text/Panel (324 Live + 173 Text +148 Online Panel)
Target Field Dates:   May 8-10, 2024
Margin of Error at 95% Confidence Level: +/-3.9%

Today we are conducting scientific survey research in your area about the upcoming elections.  We are not selling anything, and your responses will be kept confidential.

1. First, are you or any member of your immediate family a member of the news media, a Public Relations company, or an active participant in any political campaign?
   1. Yes   0%
   2. No  100%

2. Are you currently a registered voter in Maryland?
   1. Yes  100%
   2. No 0%

3. How likely are you to vote in this year’s election for US Senate?
   1. Extremely Likely   3%
   2. Very Likely    0%
   3. Somewhat Likely  8%
   4. Not Very Likely  4%
   5. Not Sure or Don’t Know  7%

4. What would you say is the number one issue that will decide your vote for US Senate in this year’s election?
   1. Illegal Immigration 8%
   2. The Border  2%
   3. Crime   9%
   4. National Security  7%
   5. Economy and Jobs   5%
   6. Inflation  2%
   7. Debt and Spending  7%
   8. Abortion  0%
   9. Other 5%
   10. Don’t Know / Refused  4%
5. What do you think is the number one threat to our national security?
   1. China 7%
   2. Russia  1%
   3. Iran or Hamas  8%
   4. Cyber Attacks 6%
   5. The border 4%
   6. A bad economy    7%
   7. Terrorism  4%
   8. Something else  5%
   9. Don’t Know / Refused  8%

6. Now I am going to read you a list of names of people.  After I read each one, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person.  If I read one you have never heard of, just tell me and we’ll move on to the next one. The (first/next) one is…

1. 1. Joe Biden
   2. Very Favorable  8%
   3. Somewhat Favorable 9%
   4. Somewhat Unfavorable 5%
   5. Very Unfavorable 9%
   6. No Opinion 7%
   7. Don’t Know / Refused 3%

Total Favorable               55.7%
Total Unfavorable           42.3%

1. 7. Donald Trump
   8. Very Favorable 4%
   9. Somewhat Favorable 2%
   10. Somewhat Unfavorable 7%
   11. Very Unfavorable 6%
   12. No Opinion 7%
   13. Don’t Know / Refused 4%

Total Favorable               30.6%
Total Unfavorable           67.3%

1. 8. Larry Hogan
   9. Very Favorable 8%
   10. Somewhat Favorable 5%
   11. Somewhat Unfavorable 0%
   12. Very Unfavorable 0%
   13. No Opinion 2%
   14. Don’t Know / Refused 5%

Total Favorable               61.3%
Total Unfavorable           31.0%

7. Do you think things in the United States are heading in the right direction or the wrong direction?

1. 1. Right Direction 1%
   2. Wrong Direction 3%
   3. Don’t Know/Refused 6%

8. What word would you use to describe Larry Hogan?

9. Do you consider Larry Hogan to be

1. 1. Very Conservative    0%
   2. Somewhat Conservative   6%
   3. Moderate    8%
   4. Somewhat Liberal    2%
   5. Very Liberal    5%
   6. Don’t Know / Not Sure / Refused 8%

Total Conservative                      38.6%
Total Moderate                            40.8%
Total Liberal                                 13.8%

10. Do you consider yourself to be <rotate choices 1-5 top to bottom/bottom to top>

1. 1. Very Conservative 2%
   2. Somewhat Conservative 0%
   3. Moderate 8%
   4. Somewhat Liberal 9%
   5. Very Liberal 6%
   6. Don’t Know / Not Sure / Refused 5%

Total Conservative                   28.2%
Total Moderate                         35.8%
Total Liberal                              34.6%

Now changing gears a bit …

11. How close do you think we are to the start of World War 3?

1. 1. Not close at all 1%
   2. Unlikely to start anytime soon 1%
   3. Somewhat close 1%
   4. Very close 1%
   5. Don’t Know / Refused 6%

12. Over the course of a regular week in your life, where would you most regularly see or hear news about government and politics?

1. 1. Fox News, Newsmax or OANN 7%
   2. CNN or MSNBC 7%
   3. Morning or evening broadcast TV news 2%
   4. Newspapers 9%
   5. Radio 2%
   6. Social media apps like Facebook or Twitter 1%
   7. YouTube 1%
   8. Google News, Apple News, or other 0% news sites on the internet
   9. Don’t know / Refused 2%

13. Who did you vote for in the 2020 Election for President?

1. 1. Joe Biden 5%
   2. Donald Trump 0%
   3. Someone Else 3%
   4. Didn’t Vote 0%
   5. Don’t Know / Refused 2%

And, finally for demographic purposes only,

QGEN: What is your gender?

1. 1. Female 3%
   2. Male 8%
   3. Don’t know / Refused  9%

QAGE: What year were you born?

1. 1. 18-34 9%
   2. 35-54 7%
   3. 55-64 9%
   4. 65+ 9%
   5. Not Sure/Don’t Know 7%

QMAR: What is your marital status?

1. 1. Single 2%
   2. Married 2%
   3. Divorced 7%
   4. Widowed 4%
   5. Don’t Know / Refused   6%

QETH: What is your Ethnicity?

1. 1. White or Caucasian 7%
   2. Hispanic or Latino 0%
   3. Black or African American 4%
   4. Asian 4%
   5. Another not listed 3%
   6. Don’t Know / Refused 2%

QED: What is the highest education level you achieved?

1. 1. Some or no college 0%
   2. Bachelor’s degree 7%
   3. Masters or Doctorate 8%
   4. Don’t Know / Refused 4%

QPAR: What political party do you consider yourself affiliated with?

1. 1. Republican 6%
   2. Democrat   0%
   3. Other 7%
   4. Don’t Know / Refused 7%

QVHG: Vote History (Not Asked/Coded from file)

1. 1. New Voter 7%
   2. 1 of 4 0%
   3. 2 of 4 2%
   4. 3 of 4 4%
   5. 4 of 4 6%
   6. Panelists 9%

QCO: DMA (Not Asked/Coded from file)

1. 1. Baltimore 9%
   2. Pittsburgh 5%
   3. Salisbury 9%
   4. DC 8%

052124 MD Sen Benchmark TOPLINES