July 28, 2022
CONTACT: Sarah Tinsley, Director
John Bolton SuperPAC
202-621-8056
[email protected]

Independents’ Opposition to Trump Could Give Democrats Outright Senate Control.

Washington D.C. – A new national survey conducted by John Bolton Super PAC of likely voters in four key Senate battleground states (Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania), results indicate that Donald Trump is a significant drag on the general-election prospects of Republican candidates. Independent and undecided voters, whose votes will be critical, perhaps dispositive in November, nationally and in the four swing states, have decidedly unfavorable views of Trump. In all but Georgia, Republican candidates are trailing.

With Independent voters, Donald Trump is Favorable 38%, Unfavorable 48%, a net negative of minus ten points. Only 12.5% of Republican primary voters identified as ‘Trump Republicans’ and 73% as moderate or conservative.

Ron DeSantis continues to gain on Trump among prospective 2024 GOP primary voters. Trump has just a 2 point lead (33-31). In all, 67% of 2024 GOP primary voters picked a candidate other than Donald Trump.

Georgia: Republican Herschel Walker leads Democrat Raphael Warnock by 4 points, 46% to 42%. With Undecided voters in the Georgia Senate race Trump is Favorable 31%, Unfavorable 43%, a negative of minus 11 points.

Pennsylvania: Republican Mehmet Oz trails by 6 points. With Undecided voters Donald Trump is Favorable 34%, Unfavorable 48%. An obstacle.

Ohio: Republican J.D. Vance trails Democrat Tim Ryan by six points, 44% to 38%. With Undecided voters in the Ohio Senate race Trump is Favorable 24%, Unfavorable 52%. Another obstacle.

North Carolina: Republican Ted Budd trails Democrat Cheri Beasley by 3 points, 43% to 40%. With Undecided voters in the North Carolina Senate race Trump is Favorable 33%, Unfavorable 33%.

Characterizing the survey’s results, Ambassador John Bolton said:

“These results do not mean Republican candidates should not campaign as true conservatives, only that they stress their loyalty to principles. We can still win these races, but the candidates need to separate themselves from Trump. Whatever Trump’s role in the nominating process, his role in the coming general elections can be fatal to GOP efforts to gain outright control of the Senate.”

“Trump’s fixation on himself and the 2020 election are poisonous to independent and undecided voters. Republican candidates who hope to win in November are risking political suicide if they stress their closeness to Trump, or allow their opponents to portray them as mini-Trumps.”

Other Key findings from the poll include:

-The poll also found that 60.4% believe that a new Republican candidate, “a fresh face,” would be more likely to defeat Biden in the 2024 presidential election, while 22.9% disagree.

-On the critical question of whether Vice President Mike Pence acted correctly or incorrectly on January 6, 2021, regarding the counting of Electoral College votes, 66.3% sided with Pence, while only 14.7% sided with Trump. Of those surveyed, 81% believe that Biden is legally President of the United States, while 13% disagree.

-Americans are equally divided over whether Trump should be prosecuted for the January 6 Capitol riot (45.9% yes, 45.5% no), while 49.5% believe that Trump incited the crowd to storm the Capitol, and 39.8% disagree.

-Among Republicans asked how they describe themselves, 45.1% said they were “conservatives”; 27.7% said they were “moderates”; and only 12.5% said they were “Trump Republicans.” The rest were undecided or did not answer.

Asked who they would support for President in a primary held today, 33.3% said Trump, 30.7% said DeSantis, and all the rest were in single digits.

These findings are based on a survey conducted on behalf of John Bolton Super PAC of likely general election voters in Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina and Georgia was taken between July 22-24, 2022. We polled 1200 voters, 300 voters in each state. Political veteran Carter Wrenn helped analyze the results. The survey of general election voters has a margin of error of +/- 2.8% at a 95% confidence interval.

Through his PAC, SuperPAC and Foundation, Ambassador John Bolton defends America by raising the importance of national security in public discourse and supporting candidates who believe in strong national security policies. Ambassador Bolton has worked hard to restore conservative leadership, which must reverse the recent policies of drift, decline and defeat. America must rise to the occasion and acknowledge the indispensable role we play in the world. Through 2020, Ambassador Bolton’s endorsed over 200 candidates and raised nearly $20 million for his organizations.

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January 19, 2022
CONTACT: Sarah Tinsley, Director
John Bolton SuperPAC
202-621-8056
[email protected]

Voters identifying as “Trump Republicans” drop 14 points, Trump’s support tanking.

Washington D.C. – A new national survey conducted by John Bolton Super PAC of likely voters revealed a 14-point drop in Republican Primary voters identifying themselves as “Trump Republicans.” Voters calling themselves “Trump Republicans” fell to 14.6% from 29.4% in September. Trump’s “very favorable” numbers also dropped 11 points with GOP primary voters continuing their decline, down from 55% in September to 44% now.

The poll also revealed a substantial decline in the power of Trump’s endorsement: Republican primary voters “definitely voting” for a Trump-endorsed candidate are down to just 12.6%, compared with 28.8% in September, a 16-point drop.

Statement by Ambassador John Bolton:

“The trend lines across our polls are definitive – support for Donald Trump is tanking within the Republican party. Trump’s endorsements are becoming irrelevant at best. For over a year, Trump has been telling anyone who’d listen ‘the election was stolen’ – now, when Trump says that voters shake their heads. 79% of all voters say Biden is ‘legally President,’ and 67% of Republican primary voters say Biden is legally President. Voters also think their vote will be counted fairly, and they see Trump’s personality as a major weakness.

“One final example: Last January, President Trump told Vice President Pence to throw out Electoral College votes. Pence said he did not have authority under the Constitution to do so. A majority (53%) of Republican Primary voters now agree with Pence not Trump. In fact, only 20% agree with Trump. Our party is not dominated by Trump.”

Key findings from the poll include:

-Joe Biden has rebounded and now narrowly leads Donald Trump in a general election match up (44%-43%) after trailing in the September poll. Both Independent and Undecided voters now dislike Trump more than Biden. With Independent voters Biden is Favorable 43%, Unfavorable 50% a net negative of -7 points. With Independents Trump is Favorable 36, Unfavorable 56, a net negative of -20 points. With undecided voters Biden’s net negative is -28 points, and Trump’s net negative is -42 points.

-While we saw minor improvements for Trump in ballot matchups against potential GOP primary opponents (from 26% in September to 36% now), he remains 10 points lower than he was in April and July. In all, 64% of Republican primary voters do not support Trump. Ron DeSantis leads among the other possible candidates (19.5%). Liz Cheney, polled for the first time, was at 6%. 22% were undecided.

-Additionally, a majority of primary voters (56%) believe that a “fresh face” is needed to defeat Biden in 2024.

-In a significant reversal, Republican primary voters now feel confident their vote will be counted fairly in the next election (52%-38%) compared with their attitude in September (45%-49%), a net change from -4 to +14.

-By 2 to 1 Republican primary voters believe that Donald Trump should have immediately taken action to stop the rioters on January 6th – only 25% agree with Trump not acting immediately.

-As Biden’s foreign policy continues to stumble, a majority of Republican voters (66%) now fear that Vladimir Putin sees America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan as a sign of weakness, leading Putin to believe Russia can invade Ukraine. Among all voters, 53% see the withdrawal as a sign of weakness.

These findings are based on a national survey conducted on behalf of John Bolton Super PAC of 1,000 likely general election voters. Political veteran Carter Wrenn helped analyze the results. The survey of general election voters has a margin of error of +/- 3.1% at a 95% confidence interval. This poll is the fourth national poll conducted by John Bolton Super PAC over the last ten months. All data collected for this poll and the previous ones can be found on the website. The full topline analysis and crosstabs are available at: www.boltonsuperpac.com

Through his PAC, SuperPAC and Foundation, Ambassador John Bolton defends America by raising the importance of national security in public discourse and supporting candidates who believe in strong national security policies. Ambassador Bolton has worked hard to restore conservative leadership, which must reverse the recent policies of drift, decline and defeat. America must rise to the occasion and acknowledge the indispensable role we play in the world. Through 2020, Ambassador Bolton’s endorsed over 200 candidates and raised nearly $20 million for his organizations.

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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

September 30, 2021
CONTACT: Sarah Tinsley, Director
John Bolton SuperPAC
202-621-8056
[email protected]

Washington D.C. – New data released from the third national survey conducted by John Bolton Super PAC of likely voters revealed only 33% of voters favored withdrawing all troops from Afghanistan. 50% of the Democrats supported withdrawing all troops compared to only 31% of Independents and 17% of Republicans.

Trump and Biden both supported withdrawing from Afghanistan. Withdrawing hurt Biden with Independents where his Favorables dropped 13 points and his Unfavorables rose 17 points, a net drop of 30 points. Supporting withdrawal hurt Trump with conservatives, where in the Republican primary Trump’s vote among Very Conservative voters dropped 23.5 points.

Statement by Ambassador John Bolton:

“Voters rejected the Trump-Biden Afghanistan withdrawal strategy proving that everyday Americans have a better sense of our security needs than the current and previous occupants of the Oval Office. Overwhelming numbers see this as a major failure that makes America less safe and emboldens terrorists and adversaries to challenge the United States.”

New data released from the September poll:

1. Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? “President Trump and President Biden both made major mistakes in Afghanistan – to move forward we need new leaders and fresh faces.”

Agree 50.5
Disagree 39.6
Refused/DK 9.9

2. Question: In your opinion, does the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan make the United States safer from terrorism, less safe from terrorism, or does it make no difference?

Safer 5.8
Less Safe 51.8
No Difference 37.0
Refused/DK 5.4

Note: 77% of conservative voters said withdrawal made us less safe.

3. Question: President Trump and President Biden both negotiated with Taliban – they told Taliban: ‘We will withdraw our troops if, in exchange, you do not assist terrorist groups like Al Qaeda.’ In your opinion, did President Trump, President Biden, or both, make the mistake of trusting Taliban to keep its promises?

Trump made mistake 14.5
Biden made mistake 31.6
Both 39.5
Refused/DK 14.4

Note: In total, 71% said Biden made a mistake. 54% said Trump made a mistake.

4. Question – True or Untrue: The Taliban is a terrorist group.

True 88.3
Untrue 5.1
Don’t know 6.6

5. Question: The Taliban is a terrorist organization and former President Trump should not have negotiated with terrorists.

True 55.5
Untrue 30.4
DK/Refused 14.1

6. Question: After 9/11 Taliban protected Al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden. Knowing this, do you agree or disagree with the following statement: “Withdrawing from Afghanistan wasn’t a good idea that was botched – it was a bad idea because now Taliban will once again provide terrorist groups – like Al Qaeda – with safe havens and a base of operations.”

True 56.2
Untrue 25.9
DK/Refused 18.0

Note: Liberal voters disagree but both moderate and conservative voters agree. Conservative voters agree most – 69%. Republicans agree (72%), Independents agree (60%), Democrats agree but more narrowly (A-41, D-34, DK-24).

7. Question: True/Untrue: “Taliban supports terrorist groups like Al Qaeda.”

True 80.8
Untrue 5.6
DK/Refused 13.6

Note: Liberals agree 71%, moderates agree 79%, conservatives agree 89%. Republicans agree 91%, Democrats agree 74%, Independents agree 79%.

8. Question: Looking back, do you think the U. S. should have: 1) Withdrawn all its troops from Afghanistan; 2) Withdrawn some but left troops in the country; 3) Not withdrawn any; 4) Not withdrawn and sent more troops.

Withdrawn all 33.1
Left some troops 42.2
Not withdrawn any 9.8
Sent more troops 5.0
DK/Refused 9.9

Note: In all, only 33% of voters favor withdrawing all troops. 50% of the Democrats said withdraw all troops compared to only 31% of Independents and 17% of Republicans.

9. Question: President Trump made a mistake in negotiating only with the Taliban and agreeing to the Taliban’s demand of excluding the government of Afghanistan.

Agree 50.6
Disagree 30.3
DK/Refused 19.1

10. Question: Our failure in Afghanistan will encourage jihadist groups across the globe, encouraging them that they can succeed, thus making them more likely to attack the United States.

Agree 60.8
Disagree 29.1
DK/Refused 10.1

These findings are based on a national survey conducted September 16-18, 2021, on behalf of John Bolton Super PAC of 1,000 likely voters. Political veteran Carter Wrenn analyzed the results. The survey of general election voters has a margin of error of +/- 3.1% at a 95% confidence interval.

Through his PAC, SuperPAC and Foundation, Ambassador John Bolton defends America by raising the importance of national security in public discourse and supporting candidates who believe in strong national security policies. Ambassador Bolton has worked hard to restore conservative leadership, which must reverse the recent policies of drift, decline and defeat. America must rise to the occasion and acknowledge the indispensable role we play in the world. Through 2020, Ambassador Bolton’s endorsed over 200 candidates and raised nearly $20 million for his organizations.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

September 29, 2021
CONTACT: Sarah Tinsley, Director
John Bolton SuperPAC
202-621-8056
[email protected]

National security failure shakes up the 2024 Republican Primary as Trump falls into a virtual tie with Ron DeSantis.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

July 19, 2021
CONTACT: Sarah Tinsley, Director
John Bolton SuperPAC
202-621-8056
[email protected]

Post-election missteps are leading Trump’s core supporters to abandon him

Washington D.C. – A new nationwide survey by John Bolton Super PAC of voters reveals that a majority of Republican primary voters now agree “that a new Republican candidate – a fresh face – would be a stronger candidate to defeat Joe Biden in 2024.” That is a major shift since our first national poll taken in April where 50% of primary voters said Trump would be the strongest candidate to defeat Biden while 36% said another candidate would be stronger. That’s a shift of 17 points away from Trump and 16 points to a “fresh face” – a 33-point swing.

Specifically, Republican primary voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the January 6 riot, sided with Pence over certifying electoral college voters, and are concerned over the recent Trump Organization indictments.

Ambassador John Bolton:

“The significant amount of data in this poll should be of considerable interest to Republican candidates at all levels: presidential, congressional, and state/local.

The data show the fissures in Trump’s base are expanding, and show that GOP voters still prize good policy above anyone’s personality.”

Other key findings from the poll include:

– A third of Trump’s most ardent supporters – Republican primary voters who are Very Favorable to Trump – now say a fresh face would be a stronger candidate against Biden than Trump. Of Republican primary voters who are less ardent Trump supporters – voters who are Somewhat Favorable to Trump – 69% said a fresh face will be a stronger candidate.

– By a share of 2:1, Republicans sided with Mike Pence recognizing that the Vice President lacks the authority to throw out electoral college votes. 62% of all voters agree with Pence – only 14% agree with Trump. Republican primary voters also agree with Pence (43%) while only 23% agree with Trump.

– 46% of Republican primary voters believe Trump should have taken stronger steps to stop the rioters when they entered the Capitol and an overwhelming 62% of general election voters indicating Trump is to blame for the attack.

– Recent Trump organization indictments are big trouble for Trump with 45% of all voters saying the indictments for tax evasion and other charges make them less favorable to Trump, along with 22% of Republican primary voters.

– Despite Trump’s claims “the election was stolen, 64% of all voters now say Biden won the election and “is truly President.” Biden leads Trump in the 2024 Presidential ballot and Democrats lead the 2022 generic congressional ballot.

These findings are based on a nationally representative survey conducted by political veteran Carter Wrenn on behalf of John Bolton Super PAC, of 1,000 of likely midterm general election voters, with an oversample of Republican voters. The survey of general election voters has a margin of error of +/- 3.1% at a 95% confidence interval.

Through his PAC, SuperPAC and Foundation, Ambassador John Bolton defends America by raising the importance of national security in public discourse and supporting candidates who believe in strong national security policies. Ambassador Bolton has worked hard to restore conservative leadership, which must reverse the recent policies of drift, decline and defeat. America must rise to the occasion and acknowledge the indispensable role we play in the world. Through 2020, Ambassador Bolton’s endorsed over 200 candidates and raised nearly $20 million for his organizations.

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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

June 4, 2021
CONTACT: Sarah Tinsley, Director
John Bolton SuperPAC
202-621-8056
[email protected]

Washington D.C. – A new survey of New Hampshire voters by John Bolton Super PAC and the New Hampshire Institute of Politics revealed former President Donald Trump’s base has dropped 35% since the election with 2024 Republican primary voters. Trump’s decline is primarily due to his personality or character, as 61% of Republican voters say they disapprove of his personality. These results confirm trends among Republican primary voters first revealed in polling results released by John Bolton Super PAC in April.

Statement by Ambassador John Bolton:

“The second survey commissioned by the John Bolton Super PAC, this time of New Hampshire voters, undertaken by St. Anselm College’s Institute of Politics, shows a continuation of trends identified in our first poll, a national survey announced in April – an ongoing weakening of support for Trump within the Republican Party. This is true not only in the national poll, but in New Hampshire, a key state for the 2022 mid-term elections, with both Senatorial and Gubernatorial elections scheduled. And, New Hampshire, of course, remains the first-in-the-nation Republican primary in 2024 for the Party’s presidential nomination.

As described more fully in the attached narrative and presentation of results to the survey questions as presented to us by St. Amselm College’s Institute of Politics, we believe that the “conventional wisdom” that former President Trump still controls the Republican Party is becoming increasingly less and less tenable among his strongest supporters, regular Republicans as well as Independents. The rhetorical gap between the increasing disenchantment of actual Republican voters on the one hand and the vested interest of Trump and his supporters on the other is becoming broader.

We welcome additional polling on the subjects we have been raising by all responsible pollsters. As we demonstrated in our first national poll announced in April, we are committed to openness and transparency and have released all the data for everyone to view. With the very concept of public-opinion polling on political questions under heavy criticism in the United States, we believe nothing less is satisfactory. So for all the others who may engage in polling similar to ours, we would also welcome your commitment to full transparency as well.”

Key findings from the poll include:

– Trump has suffered a significant erosion of “strongly favorable” voters. 47% of Republican voters now have a strongly favorable opinion of Trump, compared to 71% just prior to the election. Trump has a narrow lead in the GOP primary — 52% vote Trump, 48% not Trump.

– 61% of New Hampshire Republican voters disapprove of Donald Trump’s personality. Voters in New Hampshire also say, overwhelmingly, that a candidate’s stands on issues is more important to them than a candidate’s loyalty to Trump – by a margin of 91% to 8%.

– Voters disagree with Trump’s claim that he won the 2020 election by a wide margins — 58% to 28%.

– 46% of New Hampshire Republican voters said Trump’s opposition to a Republican candidate in a primary made no difference to them. Trump’s endorsement helps a candidate in a primary but also makes it harder for the candidate to win the general election. 56% of the Undeclared voters are Strongly Unfavorable to Trump and almost all vote for Biden.

These findings are based on a survey of New Hampshire voters conducted on behalf of John Bolton Super PAC by the New Hampshire Institute of Politics, of 1,267 of likely midterm general election voters, with an oversample of Republican voters. Political veteran Carter Wrenn helped analyze the results. The survey of general election voters has a margin of error of +/- 2.8% at a 95% confidence interval.

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